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Executive Summary/Trends/Strategies

Zusammenfassung der Handy-Strategie

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Mobile/Forecasts

Mobile/Forecasts/India

Einleitung

Der Siegeszug des Handys

Die Zukunft ist mehr und mehr mobil. Schätzungen zufolge gibt es Ende 2010 rund 5,3 Milliarden Handynutzer weltweit; ungefähr 77 Prozent der Weltbevölkerung haben einen Handyvertrag. In Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländern sollen es 68 Prozent sein. Offenkundig sollte Wikimedia eine Strategie entwickeln, die es erlaubt, Wikipedia und andere Wikiprojekte per Handy einfacher zu lesen und zu bearbeiten. Gerade im Süden der Welt ist dies wichtig, wo Mobiltechnologie den Hauptzugang zum Internet darstellt. Da die festen Breitbandkosten in dieser Region meist unerschwinglich sind, muss Wikimedia seine Mobilstrategie dort vorantreiben.

Während die weltweite monatliche Zunahme von Handys deutlich abgeflacht ist, ist in Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländern immer noch ein bedeutendes Wachstum zu beobachten. Man erwartet, dass dieser Trend bei Handynutzern aus diesen Gebieten anhält: Die ITU schätzt, dass der Anteil der Handynutzer dort von 53 (Ende 2005) auf 73 Prozent (Ende 2010) angewachsen ist.

Das Wachstum der Handynutzung im Süden der Welt geht vor allem auf Asien und den Pazifikraum zurück. In Indien und China werden dieses Jahr zusammen schätzungsweise 300 Millionen neue Handyverträge abgeschlossen. Auf der anderen Seite lassen die Neuzugänge in den Industrieländern nach, Ende 2010 gibt es hier 116 angemeldete Handys pro 100 Einwohner.

Zurückblickend hat das mobile Internet ein größeres Wachstum erlebt als das World Wide Web (WWW) in den Neunzigern. Laut einem Bericht von Morgan Stanley über den Status des mobilen Internets übersteigt dessen Wachstum jenes des Festinternets bei Weitem. Beispielsweise gab es in den 11 Vierteljahren nach dem Erscheinen von iPhone und iPod ungefähr 85 Millionen Internetnutzer von diesen Geräten aus – dem stehen gerade einmal 8 Millionen AOL-Nutzer in den 11 Vierteljahren nach dem Start des AOL-Dienstes gegenüber.

Wikimedias aktuelle Situation

Im Einklang mit der weltweiten Zunahme von Handynutzern hat Wikipedia derzeit ein Handyportal (m.wikipedia.org), welches den Zugang zu Wikipedia mittels Handy in verschiedenen Sprachen erlaubt. Die deutschsprachige Wikipedia beispielsweise findet sich unter de.m.wikipedia.org. Wikipedia also has an iPhone application for easier browsing on the iPhone OS (the iPhone's operating system). Wikimedia Foundation's mobile strategy will have a more comprehensive and nuanced approach to directions in technology, design, user interface and markets.

Was los ist

Dieser Abschnitt vermittelt einen Überblick über das globale Geschehen im Bereich Handy und mobiles Internet. Ein Schwerpunkt liegt dabei auf Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländern. In diesem Überblick finden sich:

1. Handynetze und Betreiber
2. Mobile Geräte und Betriebssysteme
3. Verhalten mobiler Internetnutzer

As 3G networks that allow faster data speeds become more popular around the world and devices becoming more programmable (think of the application (app) ecosystem on smart phones like the iPhone, Android and Blackberry), mobile networks are poised for innovation. Smart phones have become programmable since the software development kits (SDKs) of smart phones became available to developers to build apps. Since developers must get apps approved by companies like Apple, Android and Blackberry that own the phone operating systems, mobile operating systems are not open. There is a wider array of downloadable apps available to users than before the launch of the iPhone app store, when only a few applications and services were available through carriers. Currently, smart phone users have the liberty of downloading approved apps to customize their smart phone experiences. 3G networks that provide faster data exchange speeds are becoming more popular both in developed economies and in the developing economies of the Global South, and 4G networks with even faster data speeds are being rolled out in some parts of the world.

Mobilfunknetze und Anbieter

Größte Mobilfunkanbieter weltweit

Platz	Unternehmen	Region	Nutzer (in Mio.)	Jährliches Wachstum	Börsenwert (Mia. US-$)
1	China Mobile	China	493	19%	192
2	Vodafone	Europa	303	23	123
3	Telefonica Moviles/O2	Europa/Lateinamerika	206	9	137
4	China Telecom	China	194	-9	38
5	America Movil	Lateinamerika	194	13	80
6	Telenor	Europa/Asien	172	8	24
7	T-Mobile	Europa/USA	150	6	64
8	China Unicom	China	145	10	32
9	Orange	Europa	129	9	69
10	Bharti Airtel	Indien	111	43	25
11	China Unicom	China	108	10	32
12	MTN Group	Afrika	108	34	28
13	Mobile Telesystems	Europa	101	2	20
14	Orascom	Afrika/Asien	89	12	24
15	Verizon	USA	86	6	86
16	AT&T Mobility	USA	82	9	155
17	Telekom Indonesia	Asien	80	32	19
18	Telecom Italia Mobile	Europa/Lateinamerika	72	2	30
19	VimpelCom	Russland	61	20	6
20	NTT docomo	Japan	55	2	64
21	AT&T Wireline	USA	54	-3	155
22	Deutsche Telekom	Europa	54	-2	64
23	BSNL	Indien	52	44	---
24	Turkcell	Europa	49	-4	15
25	China Telecom	China	47	--	38

Quelle: Morgan Stanley, Mobile Internet Report

IMT-2000-Netze und mehr

As 3G networks are being deployed around the world, the number of 3G subscribers worldwide has increased from 273 million in 2007 to approximately 668 million in 2009. During a similar timeframe, 3G penetration has increased from 8 percent to 15 percent of global mobile subscribers. Morgan Stanley has forecast that 3G penetration will grow phenomenally, reaching 2,776 million or 43 percent of mobile phone subscribers in 2014.

Both developed countries and the developing countries of the Global South are switching from 2G networks to 3G networks. According to ITU, 143 countries were offering 3G services in 2010, compared to just 95 countries in 2007.

However, the growth in 3G is concentrated in developed countries. In 2009, according to Morgan Stanley's report on the mobile Internet, the US had the largest number of 3G subscribers in the world at 103,110,000, followed by Japan at 94,813,000 and South Korea at 33,849,000. However, Japan has the highest 3G penetration with 87% of mobile phone subscribers having access to 3G networks, followed by South Korea with 71% 3G penetration and Australia as a distant third with 52% penetration.

Weltweite IMT-2000-Nutzer nach Staat

Platz	Land	IMT-2000-Nutzer Q2 09 (in Tsd.)	IMT-2000-Anteil
1	USA	103,110	37%
2	Japan	94,813	87%
3	South Korea	33,849	71%
4	Italy	26,773	33%
5	UK	21,711	29%
6	Germany	20,408	20%
7	Spain	20,192	38%
8	France	14,337	25%
9	Australia	12,689	52%
10	Indonesia	11,994	9%
11	Poland	11,821	27%
12	Taiwan	6,719	27%
13	Malaysia	6,276	22%
14	Brazil	5,730	4%
15	South Africa	5,413	11%
16	Russia	5,224	3%
17	Portugal	4,973	33%
18	Saudi Arabia	4,498	14%
19	Sweden	4,382	37%
20	Canada	4,309	20%
21	Netherlands	4,133	22%
22	Austria	3,949	37%
23	Romania	3,914	14%
24	Israel	3,629	39%
25	Greece	3,155	17%
26	Egypt	2,904	6%
27	Hong Kong	2,777	28%
28	Singapore	2,739	41%
29	UAE	2,684	26%
30	Philippines	2,617	4%

Source: The Mobile Internet Report, Morgan Stanley, 2009

Many European and North American countries, including Sweden, Norway, Ukraine and the United States, are rolling out 4G services that provide faster connectivity.

In the US, the FCC approved the opening of unlicensed bands of airwaves in September 2010. Analysts are predicting this will make it possible to provide super-charged WiFI networks that could blanket universities, urban neighborhoods and campuses.

On the other hand, the biggest barriers to 3G adoption in emerging economies are the high costs of monthly data plans and devices. For example, an unlimited mobile data plan in Egypt is almost 50% of the average Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. In Africa, the cost of a 3G phone is about seven percent of the GDP per capita. However, 3G services are expected to grow in Asia, and the Middle East and Africa: Morgan Stanley has forecast an inflection point for 3G adoption in Asia and the Pacific excluding Japan in 2011 and 2012, and 3G usage in Africa and the Middle East is expected to reach an inflection point that will lead to wider adoption in the next 2 years.

As more and more people across the world access the mobile web with their smart phones, wireless networks will be stretched thin to meet an increasing demand for data connectivity. The Nokia Siemens network has forecast that annual mobile traffic will reach 23 exabytes by 2015, which is equivalent to 6.3 billion people downloading a digital book each day. (1 exabyte = 1,073, 741, 824 gigabytes)

Worldwide 3G Forecasts

Region	2007	2008	2009E	2010E	2011E	2012E	2013E	2014E
Western Europe	17	25	39	54	67	77	85	92
Japan	72	84	91	96	98	99	99	100
Asia Pacific (excluding Japan)	4	5	7	13	19	25	31	37
North America	20	29	38	46	54	61	67	74
Eastern Europe	2	5	9	16	26	29	34	40
Middle East and Africa	1	3	7	12	19	25	30	35
South and Central America	1	2	4	7	10	12	15	17

(Percent of mobile phone subscribers who currently have 3G or are forecast to have 3G)

Source: The Mobile Internet Report, Morgan Stanley

Broadband versus mobile

Despite falling prices, fixed broadband continues to be the most expensive Information and Communication Technology (ICT) service in the Global South. According to a report by ITU (a United Nations agency for information technology issues), “broadband remains the single most expensive and the least affordable service in the developing world.” After adjusting for purchasing power parity (PPP), the cost of fixed broadband is $28 in developed countries and $190 in the developing Global South. As the ITU report mentions, looking closely at regional differences in price for fixed broadband reveals a wide gap between Africa and rest of the world. “On average, a high speed Internet connection represents 500 percent of average monthly GNI per capita in Africa, making fixed broadband effectively inaccessible for most people in the region. In the Arab states and Asia and the Pacific regions, the fixed broadband sub-basket represents 71 and 46 percent of income, respectively, compared to around ten percent in both the Americas and CIS. At less than two percent of average monthly income, fixed broadband services are by far the cheapest in Europe.”

The analysis of ITU’s ICT Price Basket, which measures the affordability of fixed and mobile telephony and fixed broadband Internet services, shows that the mobile phone basket became the cheapest of the three sub-baskets. “At 5.7 percent of monthly GNI per capita in 2009, it lies just below the fixed telephone sub-basket (at 5.9) and well below the fixed broadband sub-basket (at 122)."

Devices and Operating System

According to Gartner, 314.7 million mobile phones were sold worldwide to users in the first quarter of 2010, which was an increase of 17 percent compared to the same period in 2009. Smart phones comprised about 17 percent of mobile phones sold worldwide with 54.3 million smart phones being sold in the first quarter of 2010, but smart phones saw faster growth with a 48.7 percent increase in sales from the first quarter of 2009. According to Gartner, this was the fastest year-to-year increase in sales of smart phones since 2006.

Nokia continues to dominate the global mobile phone market with 35 percent of the market share, followed by Samsung (20.6%), LG (8.6%) and RIM (3.4%).

Worldwide mobile phones sold

Company	1st Q10 Units (million)	Market Share
Nokia	110,105.6	35
Samsung	64,897.1	20.6
LG	27,190.1	8.6
RIM	10,552.5	3.4
Sony Ericsson	9,865.6	3.1
Motorola	9,574.5	3.0
Apple	8,359.7	2.7
ZTE	5,375.4	1.7
G-Five	4,345	1.4
Huawei	3,970	1.3
Others	60,418.1	19.2
Total	314,653.50	100

Source: Gartner

The smart phone market is continuing to grow as smart phones with powerful computing capabilities become cheaper and more popular by the day. Apple’s iPhone, RIM’s Blackberry and Google’s Andriod are gaining popularity around the world, but Nokia’s Symbian powered smart phone continues to dominate the smart phone market with 44.3 percent of new smart phones sold to customers in the first quarter of 2010.Nokia recently announced that it would switch to the MeeGo mobile phone platform for its N-series smart phones, while other Nokia phones will continue to run on the Symbian operating system. To ensure that developers do not have to create two version of the same app for the Symbian and MeeGo platforms, Nokia has set up Qt (pronounced cute) as the sole framework for native and web application development for both the Symbian and MeeGo operating systems. According to Nokia, "consolidating around Qt will ensure that applications will be compatible with future versions of both platforms." Nokia developed the MeeGo platform, which is built on the 2 Linux platforms Moblin and Maemo, in collaboration with Intel. Nokia also decided to support HTML5 for both platforms. Some tech analysts have criticized Nokia for not adopting Android or Windows Mobile operating systems, which are platforms that have clout and a large following in the marketplace, and sticking with Symbian despite technical issues. Although MeeGoo is expected to debut in 2011, some analysts have deemed it a failure before it has even launched: "Nokia now appears to be betting everything on MeeGo, which could be more aptly be dubbed NoGo."

Worldwide Smart Phones Sold to Customers

Company	1st Q10 Units (million)	Market Share
Symbian	24,069.8	44.3
Research in Motion	10,552.6	19.4
iPhone OS	8359.7	15.4
Android	5214.7	9.6
Microsoft Windows Mobile	3,706.0	6.8
Linux	1,993.9	3.7
Others	404.8	0.7
Total	54301.4	100

Source: Gartner

Source: http://developer.android.com/resources/dashboard/platform-versions.html

The iPhone provides a similar user experience to almost all users because Apple tightly controls the iPhone's ecosystem. Since Apple manufactures the iPhone, it controls both the hardware and software (which runs on iPhone OS), and has a tight control over its app store; Apple approves every app that is available on the App Store. The Android's market is more fragmented: most Android phones run on different versions of the operating system's software. Since portability across devices and versions of the software remains an issue, it is difficult for developers to create apps for the Android market (see figure).

In addition, phone manufacturers have created customized Android user interfaces for their phones. Tech bloggers point out that HTC started this trend with Sense UI for the HTC Hero and has used the same UI for subsequent models. Similarly, Motorola created a customized UI experience for Motorola phones that run on Android. According to Vision Mobile blog, network operators like AT&T, Verizon, Orange and Vodafone have created multimillion dollar software development centers to develop customized versions of UI.

Developers have complained about the fragmentation of the Android marketplace and argue that it is harder to monetize Android apps. Unlike the iPhone where apps are sold only at the app store, and Apple is the only seller of iPhone apps, Google has an Android store, along with network carriers like Verizon and T-Mobile. Developers have to make their apps available at different stores, unlike the App store which is a one stop shop for all iPhone apps. To make matters worst for developers, the different stores support different UIs (customized by both network providers and phone manufacturers).

Mobile Internet User Behavior

Online social networking on mobile phones has grown exponentially across the globe, and viewing video content on mobile phones is also becoming popular. According to Novarra, a provider of mobile Internet gateway and browser platforms; social networking, search, video and display ads on phones have grown significantly.

Social Networking is Growing on the Mobile Web Mobile content growth, 1st to 3rd quarter, 2009

Content Type	Growth (%)
Social networks (page views)	190
Search (queries)	87
Video (views)	74
Display ads (views)	52

Source: Novarra

It is no surprise that social networking websites rank highly among websites accessed on the mobile web. According to Opera’s rankings, at least one social networking website features among the top five mobile websites accessed in the US, Russia, the UK, India and South Africa. In Africa, Facebook is among the top 2 sites in 9 out of 10 countries where Opera is used.